The global mood around the economy is a little less gloomy than it was a few months ago, but nobody is breathing easy just yet. That is the takeaway from the latest Chief Economists’ Outlook from the World Economic Forum. Just over half of surveyed chief economists, 53%, expect conditions to weaken in the year ahead. That still sounds rough, but it is a clear step up from September 2025, when nearly three quarters were expecting things to slide.
So what is shaping the year ahead? The report points to three big forces. First, money is pouring into artificial intelligence at a pace that is hard to ignore. Second, debt levels are creeping toward uncomfortable territory.
Governments and companies will have to navigate an uncertain near-term environment … while continuing to build resilience and invest in the long-term fundamentals of growth.
Saadia Zahidi
Third, global trade is slowly rearranging itself along new regional lines. As Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director at the forum, put it, governments and companies are stuck walking a tightrope: dealing with short-term uncertainty while still investing in the basics that support long-term growth.
AI, debt, and the big economic balancing act
AI sits right at the center of the debate. Are prices too high, or is there more room to run? Economists are split. A slim majority expects US AI-related stocks to cool off, while a large minority still sees gains ahead. If prices fall sharply, most believe the shock would spread well beyond tech.
Crypto looks shakier, gold may have already had its moment, yet many still expect AI to lift productivity within two years, especially in the US and China. Jobs? Some losses in the near term seem likely, but the long-term picture is far from settled.
Debt adds another layer of pressure. Defence, energy, and digital infrastructure spending are set to rise, while environmental budgets may take a hit. Emerging markets face the greatest risk, with inflation, higher taxes, or even restructuring on the table.
Meanwhile, trade keeps shifting. Regional deals are gaining ground, South Asia looks set to lead growth, and Europe remains the weakest link. The message is clear: the outlook has improved, but the road ahead is anything but smooth.
